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Ocean heat content is from Box 3.1, Figure 1 of AR5.
The likely 83% upper bound of ECS was reported by the IPCC in AR5 at 4.5 °C, but this drops to 2.45 °C when calculated with the AR5 reported forcings, and drops to only 1.8 °C when substituting the Stevens estimate of aerosol forcing.
The long time between these periods has the effect of averaging out the effect of short-term ocean oscillations such as the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), but it does not account for millennium scale ocean oscillations or indirect solar influences.
The 5th assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) gave a best estimate of aerosol forcing of -0.9 W/m [WG1 AR5 page 571].
The AR5 has substantially reduced this uncertainty compared to AR4, but this reduced uncertainty was not available soon enough to be incorporated into the climate models used in AR5.
The oceans account for over 90% of the climate system heat uptake.The analysis gives the TCR best estimate at 1.21 °C with a likely range [17 – 83%] of 1.05 to 1.45 °C.Energy balance estimates of ECS and TCR use these equations: , where F.Using the FUND integrated assessment model results, the mean estimate of the social cost of carbon on a global basis is determined to be -17.7 US$/tonne of CO.The benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization, longer growing season, greater arable land area, reduced mortality and reduced heating costs greatly exceed harmful effects of warming.